Cowboys Playoff Tracker: Winter is coming for the 1-2

Cowboys Week 3 in the NFL is an interesting week Womens Antwaun Woods Jersey , because it is the first week after which the first teams are basically eliminated from playoff contention. Only three times since 1990 (‘92 Chargers, ‘95 Lions, ‘98 Bills) has a team made the playoffs after starting 0-3. Since realignment in 2002, not one of the 78 teams that started the season 0-3 made the playoffs, which means the 0-3 teams (Raiders, Texans, Cardinals) can start doing mock drafts.Week 3 is also interesting for teams like the Cowboys that started the season 1-1, because the third game often points such teams in one or the other direction. Had the Cowboys won against the Seahawks and improved to 2-1, their historic playoff odds would have jumped to 53%. Instead, they dropped to 24%. That difference of 29% is the biggest possible swing of playoff odds anywhere in the 16-game regular season, and the Cowboys’ inability to capitalize on that will likely set the tone for the rest of the season.The table below shows what the playoff odds have looked like over the last 16 seasons by W/L after the third game of the season. So the Cowboys have about a 1-in-4 chance of making the playoffs after three weeks. That still sounds like they have a fighting chance, and maybe they do, but the more important question is this: Are the 1-2 Cowboys good enough to overcome those odds?To understand where the Cowboys currently stand and what their chances look like going forward, we turn once more to the trusted Pythagorean Formula. We’ve used the formula often before to measure overall team strength, on the hypothesis that a team’s true strength could be measured more accurately by looking at points scored and points allowed, rather than by looking at wins and losses. This is the NFL version of the formula:The 1-2 Cowboys have scored 41 points and allowed 53. Plugging that into the formula results in a 5.6-win projection for the Cowboys Womens Jaylon Smith Jersey , which should good for a Top 6 pick in the 2018 NFL draft.And in case you were harboring any hopes of a quick turnaround, know that the 41 points scored over three games makes the Cowboys offense the second-worst unit in the NFL. They are not going to be able to simply flip a switch and start scoring 30 points a game from Week 4 on.There is of course some hope that the Cowboys might be able to beat the 1-2 Lions next week, but unless they beat Detroit by two or more TDs, the Cowboys win projection won’t rise much beyond eight wins, and that’s factoring in a Cowboys win. And after four weeks of play, there is quite a strong correlation between the early win projection and the subsequent regular season win totals. Of course, with every additional week of data, the formula gets better, but after about Week 4 the improvements are gradual, and not as steep as in the first few weeks. For the Cowboys, outside of 2015 when Romo’s injury sunk the season, the projection has been fairly accurate during Garrett’s tenure as a head coach, averaging a mean average error of just 1.2 games versus the actual regular season win totals. What the data here tells us is the Cowboys are basically an 8-8 team with the occasional swing in either direction.Under Garrett’s tenure, the team has been oscillating around eight wins for the last eight years, and barring a huge showing against the Lions next week, the data here is robust enough to suggest that the ceiling for the 2018 team is yet another 8-8 season.To borrow from Bill Parcells Womens Deonte Thompson Jersey , you are what your record says you are. And that record says the the 2018 Cowboys are an average to below average team. Sure, they have a 24% chance of making the playoffs. But look at the 10 other teams with a 1-2 record; the historic playoff odds suggest up to three of them could make it to the playoffs - and do you really think these 2018 Cowboys will beat out the likes of the Patriots, Seahawks, Chargers, or Falcons for a playoff spot?Winter is coming.If we use the Pythagorean formula for the remaining 31 teams, we get a good idea of the emerging 2018 playoff picture. With that in mind, here’s how the projected wins stack up after Week 3 for all 32 NFL teams:Pythagorean Projected Wins by NFL team, Week 3, 2018 If all teams continue playing the way they did over the first three weeks of the season, the Cowboys would end up with the sixth-worst record in the league. Of course, a lot of things can change between now and then, but for now, the Cowboys are on a trajectory for one of the top picks in the draft. Barry Sanders shook hands with fans, posed for pictures and engaged in small talk outside a suite at Ford Field before the Detroit Lions opened the season against the New York Jets.At halftime, the Hall of Fame running back was on the field to turn a huge key, and the stadium's speakers blared with the sounds of an engine revving.Sanders is in his second season as an ambassador for the team http://www.dallascowboysteamonline.com/anthony-brown-jersey , a paid role that is sending him on the road for Detroit's game against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday."It's definitely nice to be back after the first few years of being retired and there not being much communication," Sanders said in an interview with The Associated Press. "So, certainly just being able to be involved with certain things that the team is doing from a community outreach standpoint and that sort of thing, for me, it's great."And, just being able to be around the game a little more and certainly around the Lions family a little more for me is meaningful so I do appreciate that."The Lions like the arrangement, too.Sanders visits suite holders during games and attends meet-and-greet sessions along with going to other team functions such as its draft party."It's great having him around and back in the fold, interacting with fans and corporate sponsors," Lions president Rod Wood told The AP. "He's probably if not the best player in Lions history, he's in the handful of the best."And, he's definitely the most remembered by our fans."While it may seem like a logical connection between the former star player and the only NFL team he played for, their relationship was not smooth in the years following his sudden and surprising retirement just before training camp began 1999.Sanders is always showered with cheers in the Motor City these days. But he was booed in public at times back in the day by fans who were still unhappy he walked away from the game after 10 spectacular seasons when he was on the verge of becoming the NFL's all-time leading rusher."I hated that it came to the point where he was getting booed," said Lomas Brown, one of Sanders' former teammates. "He's one of the greatest ever and he did it all here in Detroit. There are still some people holding a grudge today, but that's been gone for a while."Brown hopes the Lions take another step in their relationship with Sanders by honoring him with a statue at Ford Field."It's hard to believe there's not one," Brown said.Wood declined to say if there are plans to erect a Sanders statue."We've talked about things we haven't announced http://www.dallascowboysteamonline.com/chris-jones-jersey ," Wood said.When Calvin Johnson announced his retirement two years ago, it reminded people of Sanders' decision to walk away from the game.Like Sanders, the former star receiver chose to leave the Lions and the league with years left on his contract and seemingly some solid seasons left in his career.Johnson retired two years ago and the team has tried and failed, so far, to rekindle its relationship with him.As Sanders was the honored guest in Wood's suite for a game earlier this month, Johnson was in a nearby luxury box on the same floor."I know Lions fans appreciate Barry's role with the team because he's the greatest Lion and one of the greatest running backs — if not the greatest — to play the game," said Johnson, who declined to talk about his relationship with the team.Brown believes time will take care of whatever issues are keeping Johnson from being a part of the organization in some way."If the Lions continue to reaching out to him and being warm to him, I think it'll happen," Brown said.Wood is working on it."It's still goal of the organization, and me in particular, to get Calvin back in the fold," Wood said. "It was good to see him at the (Jets) game."